Anyone can make a living from horse racing: yes, just about anyone can make a living at horse racing. If you are selective in your bets and avoid the races where you have little chance of winning, then its much easier to turn your best into profit
Of course this is not what most punters do, and so the bookies more often than not make lots of money every day. However many millions every year is actually paid out on winning bets, so someone is being paid!
Race after race, season after season, some types of races always return more winners. A simple example is what are known as condition races or non-handicaps. If you look through the statistics for all conditions races, there is a significant increase in the number of favourites that go on to win the race. In handicap races, the percentage strike rate of favourites that win races is much lower.
1: The Form Always Wins!
The secret to picking horses that win is to look carefully at the previous form of horses involved in the race. This means looking at more than just the bare form figures, or the finishing position of a horse in its previous runs.
Take a simple example, suppose a horse came sixth in its previous race. You might conclude from a sixth place or what is often termed "unplaced", that the horse had no hope of winning. However this may not be a fair conclusion. Its important to look not only at the finishing position but at how close the horse was to winning. This can be established by looking at how many lengths short of the winner our losing horse was. Even if a horse came sixth it might have lost by only 3 lengths or shorter. Now there is all the difference between a horse that is 3 lengths away from winning and horse that came 2nd but lost by 20 lengths. In other words a proper look at the form will always point you in the right direction as to which horses have the form to win a race.
2: Winning Form
Its often interesting to look at the form of previous winners. Suppose a horse wins a race sometime in the recent past. By how many lenthgs did it win? Some horses barely scrape a win, while others win very convincingly. Its a much stronger form if a horse wins a race by 2 lengths or longer. So again 2 length winners are worth watching out for
3: Always Stick With Value
It has always been a "rule" that all professional backers stick by - that you must only bet when a horse is given a higher price by the bookie, than you think its overall form warrants. Of course it does take a bit of practise to get a feel for what price a horse should be in the odds. But after time you can say whether looking at the form a horse is a 2/1 shot, an odds on shot, an outsider etc. you can then use this yard stick to deceive if the odds the bookie is offering represent "value" or not
Another measure of "value" is to compare the odds with your strike rate. If you only get one winner in every 4 bets on average, then it is only "value", in general if you are getting at least 9/2 or 4.5. Anything less than this and you will probably lose overall.
4: Winning bets mean you get your stake back as well as your winnings
Its worth remembering that the odds system, used by the bookies to pay out your winnings, returns your original stake as well as your winnings. This means when you win at 2/1 for a $1 stake then you receive $3 back. This is a very healthy return if you can keep the winners coming. Increasing your strike rate towards the 50% correct figure, is virtually bound to mean you will profit overall
Of course this is not what most punters do, and so the bookies more often than not make lots of money every day. However many millions every year is actually paid out on winning bets, so someone is being paid!
Race after race, season after season, some types of races always return more winners. A simple example is what are known as condition races or non-handicaps. If you look through the statistics for all conditions races, there is a significant increase in the number of favourites that go on to win the race. In handicap races, the percentage strike rate of favourites that win races is much lower.
1: The Form Always Wins!
The secret to picking horses that win is to look carefully at the previous form of horses involved in the race. This means looking at more than just the bare form figures, or the finishing position of a horse in its previous runs.
Take a simple example, suppose a horse came sixth in its previous race. You might conclude from a sixth place or what is often termed "unplaced", that the horse had no hope of winning. However this may not be a fair conclusion. Its important to look not only at the finishing position but at how close the horse was to winning. This can be established by looking at how many lengths short of the winner our losing horse was. Even if a horse came sixth it might have lost by only 3 lengths or shorter. Now there is all the difference between a horse that is 3 lengths away from winning and horse that came 2nd but lost by 20 lengths. In other words a proper look at the form will always point you in the right direction as to which horses have the form to win a race.
2: Winning Form
Its often interesting to look at the form of previous winners. Suppose a horse wins a race sometime in the recent past. By how many lenthgs did it win? Some horses barely scrape a win, while others win very convincingly. Its a much stronger form if a horse wins a race by 2 lengths or longer. So again 2 length winners are worth watching out for
3: Always Stick With Value
It has always been a "rule" that all professional backers stick by - that you must only bet when a horse is given a higher price by the bookie, than you think its overall form warrants. Of course it does take a bit of practise to get a feel for what price a horse should be in the odds. But after time you can say whether looking at the form a horse is a 2/1 shot, an odds on shot, an outsider etc. you can then use this yard stick to deceive if the odds the bookie is offering represent "value" or not
Another measure of "value" is to compare the odds with your strike rate. If you only get one winner in every 4 bets on average, then it is only "value", in general if you are getting at least 9/2 or 4.5. Anything less than this and you will probably lose overall.
4: Winning bets mean you get your stake back as well as your winnings
Its worth remembering that the odds system, used by the bookies to pay out your winnings, returns your original stake as well as your winnings. This means when you win at 2/1 for a $1 stake then you receive $3 back. This is a very healthy return if you can keep the winners coming. Increasing your strike rate towards the 50% correct figure, is virtually bound to mean you will profit overall
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Horse Racing Statistics
I just wanted to make a statement on the contribution of this blog here. It’s awesome.
I want to contribute my part to this forum as well.
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